As usual with government hype and misinformation, the latest is the scheduled launch of the replacement satellite on 19th December. We hear of the "benefits" and I'm sure public funds will ferry top govt officials to the launch where they will stay in the poshest hotels over what was ill-planned and over-hyped.
How any organisation or government can achieve all the set out goals with a single satellite baffles me.
As one involved in communications, I have security fears over the manufacture and funding by China. I hope I'm wrong. China does not give anything free. Our communications through those satellites for years to come will be under Chinese spies' monitor and control.
Secondly, wireless satellite communications are never ideal as first-line major communications backbone. Long distance transmission backup, yes. First-line, no. Always susceptible to inherent limitations of wireless technology: spectrum issues, solar and other wireless weaknesses. By comparison, modern fibre offers almost limitless bandwidth, reliability and availability at cheaper commercial rates, not to mention current multiplexing technologies which can improve even dated legacy systems.
Thirdly, costs of satellite transmission infrastructure is usually high, much higher than, say, submarine cable, which is also faster, more reliable, less susceptible to the known limitations of wireless transmission. Never believe satellites' touted KPI's such as BER (bit error rates) and availability. Some years back, Intelsat claimed 100% availability at a forum. I challenged them and they admitted that the touted availability was only in regard to satellite-to-satellite links, not satellite-to-earth links.
Fourth: Launching satellites is one thing, earth stations for those satellites is another story entirely. No word on that as far as I know.
Fifth: Most commercial users of satellite communications prefer not to be bogged down by the huge expenses and technical capacity required to own and manage satellites. They lease bandwidths from commercial satellite operators. It's a business model and strategy from both technical and financial angles. The Nigerian government is not capable of, and no government agency in Nigeria has either the technical capacity or the financial resources to own, manage and operate satellites.
Sixth: One or two satellites is NEVER enough for the kind of hype I hear. And I do not see or hear of a multi-satellite scenario.
Seventh: Development to deployment cycle is usually long. Ours took only a breeze. I'm wondering what I'm missing.
Eighth: Maintenance and repair/disaster recovery is also a different kettle of fish. We simply do not have the capability. Who does maintenance and repair? Who does disaster recovery and management?
Finally, I hear of the capacities of the two satellites. That is not the same thing as a business plan. Why would any commercial operator worth its salt not only trust its international backbone infrastructure to a Nigerian-government-owned and operated satellite? Footprints, service provisioning and commercial rates of current and future satellites over Africa already more than meet the demands of the whole continent. These commercial operators are also more efficient. Their satellites are better managed and more reliable because of experience as well as service level agreements/service level guarantees.
I couldn't help laughing when I heard Nigerian government saying the satellites will help with last-mile access. That means satellites phones and satellite data! Iridium and other satellite phone operators have shown that satellite phones are more expensive than terrestrial mobile phones. Do they really think that the ordinary man or even the generality of most affluent Nigerian businessmen will buy into satellite phones? Are we going to be carrying cumbersome satellite antennae with our laptops for satellite internet access when mobile base station and wireless hot-spots should more than meet our needs? And who will be the retail network operator? The same satellite operator? No Sir! Government seems to envisage providing both wholesale and retail satellite services. Sorry. It doesn't work that way! I could be wrong so I'd like to see the business model.
I'm a communications lawyer, not an engineer. Hope I'm wrong. Really hope so.
Thursday, December 15, 2011
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